Maximum Your Profit Targets

Maximum Profit Targets

2007-05-24T03:58:00.000-07:00

This lesson we are going to work out the best way to take maximum profits from a position long or short. Many traders know how to get into a position but are often uncertain when they should get out.
In our last lesson we discussed Fibonacci levels and how to use these levels for entry and stop placement. So we have a sensible place to enter the market and a sensible place to put our stop loss now we need a logical target.
Don't worry if this sounds a little complicated it isn't. From the last lesson you may remember that we calculated out retracement levels by measuring the distance between point A and point B. All we are going to do now is add another measurement called point C to get some fibonacci expansion ratios.

We will eventually finish up with two targets. T1 and T2. We shall discuss which one to choose later. The formula for the calculations would look like this.

T1 = .618(B-A)+C
T2 = B-A+C

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Let's assume an imaginary security called ABC.PTY. Point A shall be 189, Point B shall be 278 and point C shall be 245. It's in an up trend and the first move (A to B) is 89 (278-189). It then pulls back to point C. The distance between point B and point C is 33 (278-245). We can now calculate some numbers.

T1 = .618(278-189)+245 Target is 300
T2 = 278-189+245 Target is 334

The chart below is a 5-minute chart of the US dollar/ Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) as you can see A is 1.4900, B is 1.4837 and C is 1.4863. Therefore:

T1 = .618(1.4837-1.4900)+1.4863 Target is 1.4824
T2 = 1.4837-1.4900+1.4863 Target is 1.4800

In our next chart we have the 4 hour chart of the British Pound/ US dollar (GBP/USD) as you can see A is 1.5712, B is 1.5859 and C is 1.5782. Therefore:

T1 = .618(1.5859-1.5712)+1.5782 Target is 1.5873
T2 = 1.5859-1.5712+1.5782 Target is 1.5929

As I mentioned earlier there are other expansion ratios but these are the two I like to use. I find it very useful to keep an eye on the first target (T1). If you are in an up trend and T1 is below resistance then I would use that as a target. If T1 is above resistance then I would probably use T2. The reverse is true for a down trend.

Good Trading

Best Regards

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Maximum Profit Targets

Information, charts or examples contained in this lesson are for illustration and educational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. We do not and cannot offer investment advice. For further information please read our disclaimer

Notes From The Past - Legend Of Trading

2007-05-24T02:23:00.000-07:00

Notes From The Past - Legend Of Trading - W.D. Gann

I came across this article that I thought everyone should read. Even though it was published a long time ago, the information is just as relevant today.

I have always used a bit of Gann's trading methods in my own trading - especially to determine trend. Love him or hate him, it would be a brave trader that would deny that Gann was one of the most influential traders of the last century.

The following article appeared in the December 1909 issue of The Ticker & Investment*Digest.

Some time ago the attention of this magazine was attracted by certain long pull Stock*Market predictions which were being made by William D. Gann. In a large number of cases Mr Gann gave us, in advance, the exact points at which certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with prices close to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched.

For instance, when the New York Central was 131 he predicted that it would sell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his figures prove to be accurate, and so different did his work appear from that of any expert whose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr Gann and his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as the particular use which he was making of them in the market.

The results of this investigation are remarkable in many ways. It appears to be a fact that Mr Gann has developed an entirely new idea as to the principles governing stock market movements. He bases his operations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since the world began, have only in recent years been subjected to the will of man and added to the list of so-called modern discoveries.

We have asked Mr Gann for an outline of his work, and have secured some remarkable evidence as to the results obtained therefrom. We submit this in full recognition of the fact that in Wall Street a man with a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions and encourages a scientific view of the Proposition, is not usually welcomed by the majority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. These activities the said majority abhors.

Mr Gann's description of his experience and methods is given herewith. It should be read with recognition of the established fact that Mr Gann's predictions have proved correct in a large majority of instances.

"For the past ten years I have devoted my entire time and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject.

"I soon began to realise that all successful men, whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting to make any money out of it.

"Being in the Brokerage business myself and handling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. I found that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end.

"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten years of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitable profession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.

"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible.

"In order to test the efficiency of my idea I have not only put in years of labour in the regular way, but I spent nine months working night and day in the Astor Library in New York and in the British Museum of London, going over the records of stock transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt & all other important manipulators from that time to the present day. I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to & from the time of E.H. Harriman, Mr Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law.

"In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variations in the value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followed by periods of inactivity. Mr Henry Hall in his recent book devoted much space to ' Cycles of Prosperity and Depression', which he found recurring at regular intervals of time. The law which I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily and even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration of each individual*stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met.

"Those in close touch with the market have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. At certain times a*stock will become intensely active, large transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these conditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline.

"While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks which made their high prices in August were declining, United States Steel Common was steadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work, sending a particular stock on the upward trend whilst others were trending downward. "I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions.

"The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental law of vibration. Science teaches that 'an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises.'

"From my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces can only be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and their values in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic, they act in accordance with periodic law.

"Science has laid down the principle that 'the properties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight'. A famous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the conviction that diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most intimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixed accidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes and developments are seen to be in many cases undulatory.' Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or on the*stock*market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.

"If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said, 'There is nothing in the universe but mathematical points of force'.

"Vibration is fundamental : nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe. Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterised in its own rate of vibration. Stock, like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they are controlled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law. "After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market."

In order to substantiate Mr Gann's claims as to what he has been able to do under his method, we called upon Mr William E. Gilley, an Inspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr Gilley is well known in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock*market movements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examined every piece of market literature that has been issued & procurable in Wall Street. It was he who encouraged Mr Gann to study the scientific and mathematical possibilities of the subject. When asked what had been the most impressive of Mr Gann's work and predictions, he replied as follows :

"It is very difficult for me to remember all the predictions and operations of Mr Gann which may be classed as phenomenal, but the following are a few.

"In 1908 when the Union Pacific was 168-1/8, he told me it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it short all the way down to 152-5/8, covering on the weak spots and putting it out again on the rallies, securing twenty-three points profit out of an eighteen point wave.

"He came to me when United States Steel was selling around 50, and said, 'This steel will run up to 58 but it will not sell at 59. From there it should break 16 points.' We sold it short around 58 with a stop at 59. The highest it went was 58. From there it declined to 41-17 points.

"At another time, wheat was selling at about 89c. He predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35. We bought it and made large profits on the way up. It actually touched $1.35.

"When Union Pacific was 172, he said it would go to 184-7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had a good break. It went to 184-7/8 and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it short repeatedly, with a stop at 185, and were never caught. It eventually came back to 17.

"Mr Gann's calculations are based on natural law. I have followed his work closely for years. I know that he has a firm grasp of the basic principles which govern stock market movements, and I do not believe any other man can duplicate the idea or his method at the present time.

"Early this year, he figured that the top of the advance would fall on a certain day in August and calculated the prices at which the Dow Jones Averages would then stand. The market culminated on the exact day and within four-tenths of one percent of the figures predicted."

"You and Mr Gann must have cleaned up considerable money on all these operations", was suggested.

"Yes, we have made a great deal of money. He has taken half a million dollars out of the market in the past few years. I once saw him take $130, & in less than one month run it up to over £12,000. He can compound money faster than any man I have ever met."

"One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr Gann was during last summer [1909] when he predicted that September Wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled.

Mr Gann said, 'If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.' It is common history that September Wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of trading, closing at that figure."

So much for what Mr Gann has said and done as evidenced by himself & others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place before our representative :

During the month of October, 1909, in twenty-five market days, Mr Gann made, in the presence of our representative, two hundred and eighty-six transactions in various stocks, on both the long and short side of the market. Two hundred and sixty-four of these transactions resulted in profits ; twenty-two in losses.

The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times, so that at the end of the month he had one thousand percent of his original margin. In our presence Mr Gann sold Steel Common at 86, saying that it would not go to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/8.

We have seen him give in one day sixteen successive orders in the same stock, eight of which turned out to be at either the top or the bottom eighth of that particular swing. The above we can positively verify.

Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing, are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.

James R. Koene has said, "The man who is right six times out of ten will make a fortune." He is a trader who, without any attempt to make a showing, for he did not know the results were to be published, established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades.

Mr Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price, but to those scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.

We have requested Mr Gann to figure out for the readers of the Ticker a few of the most striking indications which appear in his calculations. In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or out of Wall Street, is infallible.

Mr Gann's figures at present indicate that the trend of the stock market should, barring the usual rallies, be toward the lower prices until March or April 1910. He calculates that May Wheat, which is now selling at $1.02, should not sell below 99c, and should sell at $1.45 next spring. On Cotton, which is now at about 15c level, he estimates that after a good reaction from these prices the commodity should reach 18c in the spring of 1910. He looks for a corner in the March or May option.

Whether these figures prove correct or not will in no way detract from the record which Mr Gann has already established.

Mr Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age. He is a gifted mathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures, and is an expert Tape Reader. Take away his science and he would beat the market on his intuitive tape reading alone.

Endowed as he is with such qualities, we have no hesitation in predicting that, within a comparatively few years, William D. Gann will receive recognition as one of Wall Street's leading operators.

Good Trading

Best Regards

Adaptation to the Realities of the Market

2007-05-24T02:00:00.000-07:00

Do you think adaptation to the realities of the market is the most important thing?

Many times in the past I’ve written about the need to adapt, the need to be able to change your behavior relative to the market because the markets are ever changing.

I’ve stated that mechanical systems may be workable, but for only a short time relative to the life of markets. You must learn to trade what you see and to understand what you see on a chart.

When I first began trading there was no such things as futures contracts for foreign currencies. Why didn’t they exist? Because there was no need for them! In the 1970’s all that changed when the US dollar went off the gold standard and began to float against other currencies. Following that, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange began to create currency futures to provide a place where currency traders could hedge the risks associated with dealing in foreign currencies. Some of these risks are direct and some are indirect. Direct risk is involved for those who deal directly in foreign exchange. Indirect risk involves companies who export or import and receive payments or make payments in the currency of another country.

Ever since currency futures were created, they have been in a state of flux. More recently, for purposes of futures trading, currency gyrations have centered on a massive move away from currency futures to more direct trading in the forex markets. Currency futures, while maintaining their volume and open interest figures, are actually less liquid than they had been previously. Volume and open interest do not reveal the picture of what is happening in the currency futures pits. Volume and open interest levels are being maintained by fewer and fewer futures traders.

In the period from 1992 to the present, we’ve witnessed currency futures moving from “red-hot” to “cool” and now hot again insofar as speculators are concerned. Foreign exchange, which in 1992 was one of the hottest plays, first turned dull and then back again to exciting.

That this has happened can be seen in areas of which most futures traders are ignorant. Five years ago foreign currency traders were being paid huge salaries and anyone with a track record could virtually name his price. Following that, currency traders were no longer in great demand. Now, again, there is a huge demand for successful currency traders.

Currency (forex) are but a small representation of the $1.9 trillion dollar foreign exchange market. Professional currency traders use forex, forwarding contracts, derivatives of all kinds, and the futures pits, to deploy their various trading and hedging strategies. Looking at only the futures is like the blind man trying to tell what an elephant is like by feeling only the tusks.

In past years, foreign exchange desks at banks, insurance companies, brokers, and other institutions were seen closing down and firing hundreds of employees. Today, they are again looking for currency traders.

Interpreting Bar Charts

The opening price of a daily or a weekly bar usually illustrates the amateurs' view of value. Research has shown that opening prices very often
occur near the highs or lows of daily bars. Prices tend to recoil later in the day from the extremes set early on by the buying or selling of amateurs.

The actions of professional traders are often reflected in the closing prices of daily and weekly bars. They become especially active near the close, taking profits to avoid holding positions overnight.

In bull markets prices often hit lows on Monday and Tuesday due to profit taking by amateurs and then rally to new highs on Thursday and Friday. In bear markets prices often make new highs for the week on Monday and Tuesday and new lows then occur on Thursday or Friday.

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Don’t Overtrade!

If you are experiencing a run of wins, don't get getting carried away in the flush of success. You don't want to give it all back.

Over Trading is the greatest single cause for losses in the markets. Whether you are winning now or losing now, ninety-five or more percent of all traders trade too often.

Even a daytrader trading a five minute chart has no need to trade every day nor to trade all day long. You should be filtering your trades so that you take only the best of the best.

Overtrading was a problem that took me a long time to overcome because I did not know what I was looking for. Overtrading is a very serious problem, and veteran traders learn to avoid it. In fact, one way to know if a trader is a mature professional is to know if that trader conquered the problem of overtrading.

The biggest problem with overtrading is that you don't even know you're doing it. You can overtrade by trading too many contracts (too much size), trading too often, attempting too many positions or sitting and staring at the screen all day.

One trader I met, who was following a system in twenty markets, received entry signals in fourteen of the twenty. The entry prices were such that probably only two or three of them had any chance of being filled. Yet this trader boldly called in to enter all fourteen orders. After the first six, his broker refused to take any more orders. Had they all been filled, the trader would have been several thousand dollars over margin.

Good traders immediately cut back on size when they are losing or have an equity draw-down.

The total commitment you make on any entry should be relative to a reasonable expectation of the profit potential for that trade. Each trade is different and must be weighed on its merits.

How do you know how many contracts to trade? Certainly you are in a pickle if you always have to trade in single lots. That is not to say that there are never times when a single lot is the right thing to do. It’s okay when you’re scalping , or trading options . However, wherever possible try to trade a least two contracts. You need one to cover costs, and the other to give you a profit.

If it's late in the day and you are a daytrader who normally does a five lot, perhaps you should use a smaller size due to the fact that the trade hasn't as much time to develop as one made earlier in the day.

Learn to Day Trade

2007-05-24T01:41:00.000-07:00

10% Of Traders Go Bankrupt

I was thinking about an article I read some time ago that 90% of traders who ever trade lose their account and that 10% actually go bankrupt. If the first number doesn't scare you then the second definitely should.

Why is it then that there is such a large number of traders failing? It is not because they are stupid; in fact most traders have an above average IQ and are above average in most categories such as education and income. So why do they fail?

Lack of trading education!

By education I don't just mean learning how RSI, MACD, & P_SAR works or drawing lines on a chart. I mean thoroughly educating yourself in all aspects of your chosen profession. Educating yourself on the correct psychological approach to the market! Educating yourself in the correct risk management techniques relative to your account size. Educating yourself in the correct entry and exit
methods for the trading style that suits you.

This, my friend, is where I hope to be of some help. I don't have all the answers nor do I profess to be some kind of guru but I will do my best to point you in the right direction.

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Common Misconceptions Of New Traders

They think they can trade consistently with an 80% accuracy.
They think they can turn $1000 into $100,000 in six months.
They think they can predict turning points in their given
markets to within minutes.
They think they can buy a system that is 100% accurate.
They think they will quit their jobs and make a living full
time after a few months of trading.
What's the reason that so many new traders believe that trading is an easy way to make big profits? Propaganda!

We are continually bombarded in magazines, emails and the general media with claims of making astronomical amounts, just by applying the vendor's latest method or system.

Fundamentals Of Trading

Trading is not an exact science. You can't do X and get Y every time. It is as much an art as it is anything else. There is no magic formula. Trading is all about probability. It is the art of correctly applying a set of carefully thought out rules and allocating the probability of that event to result in success.

Each trade is an independent event. The market does not remember if you lost or made dollars the last time you traded.

The way you approach the market psychologically has as much to do with your success as any trading plan.

Risk management is crucial if you want to have any hope of becoming a successful trader.

Matching a method of trading with your personality is the only way you will ever feel comfortable in the markets.

An adequately funded account is necessary - not only to be able to take the trades you want, but also so you don't feel every trade is a live or die situation.

The journey to the road of successful trading will make you confront your deepest fears. Your armor on this journey will be confidence, knowledge and belief in yourself that you can achieve your dreams.

Never, equate your success or failure in the markets with who you are as a person!

The Flaw In Our Emotions

As humans we have a natural tendency to try and influence our surroundings and events we take part in. This is one reason we, as a species, have succeeded but it is also one of the fundamental flaws we all have when trying to achieve success as a traders.

As traders we have to realize we have no control over the market and if we accept that then we have to accept that we can not influence the direction of the market.

The problem of course is we have a tendency to try and succeed and when inevitable losses come, it is easy to let those losses effect us emotionally. Becoming euphoric when you hit a winning streak is almost as detrimental as becoming depressed when you have a string of losses.

We as traders have to try and achieve the state of impartiality. We have to accept that we will have losses as readily as we will have wins. Reaching the stage where you can comfortably accept loss in the knowledge that your method of trading will produce profits in the longer term is the state we have to aspire to.

Risk Management

Whenever I think of risk management I always think of an article I read on 925 CTA programs between 1974-1995. It essentially confirmed what I have long held to be true. To summarize the report, of all the CTA's who managed funds, the most consistently profitable were the ones with the best risk management systems.

To trade successfully you have to take a long look at yourself. Ask and answer the following questions.

How much equity do I need to start? How much should I risk on any one trade? Am I undercapitalized?

During the course of these lessons I will do my best to help answer these and other questions.

Entry And Exit

As a trader you will probably fall into two main categories, traders who like to trade the breakout and traders who like to join the trend once established. We could also add congestion traders, reversal type traders and mechanical signal traders but for the vast majority of traders you are going to fall into one of the two categories.

If you are a trend trader, you like to define a trend and then find a way in. This may be with the aid of fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages, Gann or one of the other many indicators available today. Your goal is to enter the trend as early as possible with the least amount of risk.

Breakout traders like to enter the market on the breakout of a previously identified range. This may be support/resistance areas, rectangles, triangles or one of the many other chart patterns. The secret to this type of trading is to determine a valid break.

In future lessons we shall begin to look at the more technical side of trading and how you can apply technical analysis to the markets to increase your probability of success.

Conclusion

During this lesson I have tried to give you a glimpse into the world of trading. I have also taken a slightly negative stance, as I don't want you to get unrealistic expectations of what to expect.

On the more positive side, trading is a fascinating world, which will allow you to really exercise your brain. There is no other arena where you get to play with some of the best minds in the world on a level playing field.

Once mastered, if you can ever use that term then the possibilities are endless. Hopefully I can help you achieve your goals

Good Trading

Best Regards

Mogiumtusin@ cly

What are the differences between trading and gambling?

2007-05-24T00:44:00.000-07:00

Many people think that trading is similar to gambling. Is this really the case?

For example, let’s take a look at Black Jack. If you start with $10,000 gambling capital, placing bets of $100 per hand and play 100 hands per day, how long will you last? In the game of Black Jack, with Las Vegas Strip rules, a casino has a built-in advantage of 1.5% over the player in the long run. That means that on average, a player will lose $1.5 per any $100 he bets with. After 100 hands, on average he’ll be down $150. Starting with a capital of $10,000 a player would last about 67 gambling days. That is very similar to the previously described trading scenario. In such case I would choose gambling because at least I would be losing my money in a more pleasant environment.

I chose Black Jack for our example because it is the only casino game in which it is possible for a skilled player to increase his odds to such extent as to be able to beat the House in the long run. A skilled counter can obtain advantage of up to 1.5% per hand over the House in the long run. That means that such a player playing 100 hands per day and average hand being $100 could double his gambling capital of $10,000 in less than 50 days. Similar odds apply to trading forex, with more potential for profit and less chances for being kicked out of a casino. In order to make it work for you, we’ll need to get the odds on your side. Now lets look at how we can extract as much profits from our trades as possible.

Understanding Trailing Stops

Once you are in the trade and the price has started moving in your direction, you need to extract as much profit as possible. Not being able to do so will make you a losing trader in the long run. How can a trader lose if he only takes small profits at a time? Profit is profit, isn’t it? Not exactly… Profit of $550 is not the same as a profit of $850. If such profits are followed by three losses of $200 each, profit of $550 will become $50 loss, while profit of $850 will become $250 win. Do you get my point?

Profits are always followed by losses and if the profits are small they will not make up for the losses that will eventually and surely follow. However, becoming too greedy can turn a small profit into a loss. This will make you lose money in the long run. The best solution to resolving these conflicts is to use trailing stops.

As the name says, trailing stop follows the stock price that is moving in your direction. For example, let’s say that we have bought (long) 2 lot EURUSD at 1.3240. We will automatically put our stop loss at 30 pips below the support line or if that is over our 4% limit we will put our stop loss at 1.3210. The price starts to move upwards and reaches 1.3280. We will now move our stop loss at $1.3250. For every one pips move in our direction we will move our stop loss 1 pips up (or down if we were in a shortsell trade).

However if we were trading two contracts (lots) and the price has in our example hit 1.3280 (40 pips profit for EURUSD) we would close one contract to protect our profit and for the remaining contract we would use trailing stop.

Good Trading

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Trading in Partnership - Joe Ross

Trading together with a friend can have its advantages. If one of you has more experience and the other more money, you can help your friend through your experience and he can help with margins. Together, you can trade larger size and perhaps make more profits. However, unless you both agree to the same line of action and what the possible contingencies might be, it is essential that you decide which of you is to execute the trades. It is more difficult reaching trading decisions together than on your own.

If you haven’t decided on the contingency measures in advance you’ll find yourself arguing and disagreeing in the middle of a trade going against you when timely action is of the essence. It can be quite disheartening and dangerous.

If you are not absolutely sure about your partner, and you don’t agree with the way he trades, you are better off trading on your own.

Take for example an instance where the order placed was ambiguous and the broker executed it twice. The traders accepted the mistake and then the market moved against them. The partner with the greater margins but less experience was in charge of execution. He placed the order before the market opened to roll the position out. The market moved against him, he covered the position at three times the premium received and then the market corrected. He was unable to get the other side because he couldn’t watch intraday.

Trading is a business! You must be totally prepared in terms of having a business plan, knowing how to place orders, and being on top of them from beginning to end. Even then things can go wrong, but being unprepared can lead to disaster. The smallest details must be thought of and prepared in advance, but mistakes and oversights still happen.

I came across an interesting concept. The path to enlightenment involves conquering five human weaknesses: greed, fear, ignorance, pride and jealousy. We should be all familiar with the first two, which cause much grief to traders, but the last three can be a big problems, too, so it’s worth pondering on them. Human weaknesses always show up to undermine one’s trading.

Greed makes people stay in a trade too long, or trade too big a size. Fear makes one get out of winning trades too early. Ignorance makes people commit innumerable mistakes. Pride doesn’t allow one to admit one is wrong and often, small losses are allowed to turn into huge losses because one doesn’t want to accept one is wrong. Jealousy can make one trade in a subjective manner.

A detached attitude is a great asset in trading. Trading is war and it is essential that you execute a pre-planned line of action flawlessly and unemotionally. You must be flexible and let things (that are now second nature) take their course. Be like an outside passive observer.

That is why it is so important to be at your best when trading. You must have all possible things on your side. You need to feel totally on top of it, prepared, in top physical shape.

The Ultimate Trade Setup using Bollinger Bands

2007-05-22T23:48:00.000-07:00

Markets move between low volatility trading range moves

To high Volatility trend moves

One of the best ways to see this taking place is with the Bollinger Bands

When a market makes a extremely narrow range move
The Bollinger Bands will noticably narrow together.

When the bands narrow down it shows an extremely low volatiltiy market
A low volatility market forecasts - a high volatility trend move
Is more than likely - just around the corner
This is a big trading setup and a money making opportunity is at hand.

The Bands narrowing together does not forecast
The direction that the breakout will be
But often times it is fairly clear from classic technical analysis
Which way the odds favor the breakout to be.

THE ENTRY SIGNAL
The parabolic stop indicator
Is a great way to make sure you are on board for the big move
And a good indicator to use as a stop
Sometimes it takes a couple of trys to get aboard the big move
The parabolic is a stop and reverse trading system
The parabolic will work excellent as an entry signal
Then use the parabolic stop and reverse signal
To change positions in the market if need be

So you use the parabolic to:
#1 - Enter the market
#2 - As a stop if wrong on the entry signal
#3 - As a new entry point to go with the market the other direction if need be

The parabolic indicator is just one idea for an entry signal
You can use whatever entry signal works for you
When you see a low volatility market

The reason it may take a couple trys
To get in the market on the right side of the big trend move
Is because the market may make a false breakout
For example the market may make a base and be ready to make a strong rally
But first may make a strong move below the base
This is called a false breakout or head fake
Then the real move may begin and the market will rally from there

The false breakout can be in either direction
And sometimes there may be a couple of false moves

FROM JOHN BOLLINGER - ON BOLLINGER BANDS
www.bollingerbands.com

Years ago the late Bruce Babcock of Commodity Traders Consumers Review interviewed me for that publication. After the interview we chatted for a while--the interviewing gradually reversed--and it came out that his favorite commodity trading approach was the volatility breakout. I could hardly believe my ears. Here is the fellow who had examined more trading systems--and done so rigorously--than anyone with the possible exception of John Hill of Futures Truth and he was saying that his approach of choice to trading was the volatility-breakout system? The very approach that I thought best for trading after a lot of investigation?

Perhaps the most elegant direct application of Bollinger Bands is a volatility breakout system. These systems have been around a long time and exist in many varieties and forms. The earliest breakout systems used simple averages of the highs and lows, often shifted up or down a bit. As time went on average true range was frequently a factor.

There is no real way of knowing when volatility, as we use it now, was incorporated as a factor, but one would surmise that one day someone noticed that breakout signals worked better when the averages, bands, envelopes, etc., were closer together and the volatility breakout system was born. (Certainly the risk-reward parameters are better aligned when the bands are narrow, a major factor in any system.)

Our version of the venerable volatility breakout system utilizes BandWidth to set the precondition and then takes a position when a breakout occurs. There are two choices for a stop/exit for this approach. First, Welles Wilder's Parabolic3, a simple, but elegant, concept. In the case of a stop for a buy signal, the initial stop is set just below the range of the breakout formation and then incremented upward each day the trade is open. Just the opposite is true for a sell. For those willing to pursue larger profits than those afforded by the relatively conservative Parabolic approach, a tag of the opposite band is an excellent exit signal. This allows for corrections along the way and results in longer trades. So, in a buy use a tag of the lower band as an exit and in a sell use a tag of the upper band as an exit.

The major problem with successfully implementing Method I is something called a head fake--discussed in the prior chapter. The term came from hockey, but it is familiar in many other arenas as well. The idea is a player with the puck skates up the ice toward an opponent. As he skates he turns his head in preparation to pass the defender; as soon as the defenseman commits, he turns his body the other way and safely snaps his shot. Coming out of a Squeeze, stocks often do the same; they'll first feint in the wrong direction and then make the real move. Typically what you'll see is a Squeeze, followed by a band tag, followed in turn by the real move. Most often this will occur within the bands and you won't get a breakout signal until after the real move is under way. However, if the parameters for the bands have been tightened, as so many who use this approach do, you may find yourself with the occasional small whipsaw before the real trade appears.

Some stocks, indices, etc are more prone to head fakes than others. Take a look at past Squeezes for the item you are considering and see if they involved head fakes. Once a faker.

For those who are willing to take a non-mechanical approach trading head fakes, the easiest strategy is to wait until a Squeeze occurs--the precondition is set--then look for the first move away from the trading range. Trade half a position the first strong day in the opposite direction of the head fake, adding to the position when the breakout occurs and using a parabolic or opposite band tag stop to keep from being hurt.

Where head fakes aren't a problem, or the band parameters aren't set tight enough for those that do occur to be a problem, you can trade Method I straight up. Just wait for a Squeeze and go with the first breakout.

Volume indicators can really add value. In the phase before the head fake look for a volume indicator such as Intraday Intensity or Accumulation Distribution to give a hint regarding the ultimate resolution. MFI is another indicator that can be useful to improve success and confidence. These are all volume indicators and are taken up in Part IV.

The parameters for a volatility breakout system based on The Squeeze can be the standard parameters: 20-day average and +/- two standard deviation bands. This is true because in this phase of activity the bands are quite close together and thus the triggers are very close by. However, some short-term traders may want to shorten the average a bit, say to 15 periods and tighten the bands a bit, say to 1.5 standard deviations.

There is one other parameter that can be set, the look-back period for the Squeeze. The longer you set the look-back period--recall that the default is six months--the greater the compression you'll achieve and the more explosive the set ups will be. However, there will be fewer of them. There is always a price to pay it seems.

Method I first detects compression through The Squeeze and then looks for range expansion to occur and goes with it. An awareness of head fakes and volume indicator confirmation can add significantly to the record of this approach. Screening a reasonable size universe of stocks--at least several hundred--ought to find at least several candidates to evaluate on any given day.

Look for your Method I setups carefully and then follow them as they evolve. There is something about looking at a large number of these setups, especially with volume indicators, that instructs the eye and thus informs the future selection process as no hard and fast rules ever can

Forex 1-2-3 Method by Mark Mc Rae

2007-05-22T02:12:00.000-07:00

This particular technique has been around for a long time and I first saw it used in the futures market. Since then I have seen traders using it on just about every market and when applied well, can give amazingly accurate entry levels.

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Lets first start with the basic concept. During the course of any trend, either up or down, the market will form little peaks and valleys. see the chart below:

The problem is, how do you know when to enter the market and where do you get out. This is where the 1-2-3 method comes in. First let's look at a typical 1-2-3 set up:

Nice and simple, but it still doesn't tell us if we should take the trade. For this we add an indictor. You could use just about any indictor with this method but my preferred indictor is MACD with the standard settings of 12,26,9. With the indictor added, it now looks like this:

Now here is where it gets interesting. The rules for the trade are as follows:

Uptrend

This works best as a reversal pattern so identify a previous downtrend.
Wait for the MACD to signal a buy and for the 1-2-3 set up to
be in place.
As the market pulls back to point 3, the MACD should remain in
buy mode or just slightly dip into sell.
Place a buy entry order 1 pip above point 2
Place a stop loss order 1 pip below point 3
Measure the distance between point 2 and 3 and project that
forward for your exit.
Point 2, should not be lower than point 1

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The reverse is true for short trades. As the market progresses you can trail your stop to 1 pip below the most recent low (Valley in an uptrend). You can also use a break in a trend line as an exit.

Some examples:

There are a lot of variations on the 1-2-3 setup but the basic concept is always the same. Try experimenting with it on your favorite time frame.

Good Trading

Best Regards

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